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Dave Snowden

“Complex theory gives rise to simple methods and tools that work at scale; simplistic theory gives rise to increasing complicated methods that create excessive dependency on consultants”. Discuss

@snowded simplistic theories lead to a myriad of exceptions, and adjustments learned only from a long experience

@snowded @snowded I think the simpler tools are harder to grasp in the sense that they may be very indirect, thus harder to grasp as results can’t be predicted and that is made known by the complex approach. Simplistic theory promises easier to predict results that are not immediately obvious to be wrong. Thus potentially a bias for latter. I might have a personal story involving heat pumps since the last 6 months that corresponds here.

@snowded One can become excessively dependent on simple #methods and #tools, too, e.g. when establishing paid training programs and tool #license subscriptions throughout the #organization.

We might say this isn't excessive at all when "it works at scale", but that goes for the efforts of a consultancy, too. If we wanted to claim that one almost always works while the other doesn't, we'd need reliable evidence for that. (Beyond #HBR articles, that is).

@snowded
After what I saw today, there may be a third option: (over-)complicated theory gives rise (despite good intentions) to over-complicated methods/agendas...