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Many people describe prediction markets as a form of wisdom of the crowd. Polymarket has been favoring Trump to win (58% likelihood) but it turns out a lot of that is driven by a single French user who has bet $30 million on Trump winning.
The best part is the bettor is anonymous because they’re hiding their wealth from their friends and children.
Wisdom of the crowd? More like wisdom of the crypto bro.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-odds-polymarket-election-betting-whale-3d94bed3?st=TLcnSc
@carnage4life I also heard that Musk put $25 million into Polymarket.
Due to arbitrage, this inflated share value spreads to other prediction markets, so you can now get cheap pro-Harris shares on those.
@carnage4life If we know anything about #Trump supporters, it's that they're willing to invest money into *anything* to socially signal their support of the man. They'll buy gold shoes, $100k watches, Bibles, whatever. It wouldn't surprise me if they're pouring money into #Polymarket as a show of fealty. Same thing with #DWAC.
@carnage4life Yep, any prediction market that requires crypto to access was always gonna have a heavy skew. It's a wonder why any legitimate-money betting markets arbitrage against it. It's like if PredictIt bettors arbitraged against elementary school mock elections.
@carnage4life short-term problem as in the future any such “whales” will be arbed out
@carnage4life Cryptocurrency prediction platform leaning towards Trump because one whale user? how absolutely shocking