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Technology Connections

@dualityk@mastodon.sdf.org @scott that's fair, for sure.

But on the other hand, the reversal seems very sudden. I don't think the data would look like that given fleet-turnover rates, but that's just my intuition

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Douglas Kilpatrick

@TechConnectify @dualityk @scott from epa.gov/automotive-trends/high

Doesn't address the fleet-turnover at all, but suggest the changes in weight are less than I'd have expected from 2004 to 2020 (with a notable increase from 2020+). The average age of a car on the road is 12.5 years? (R&T) so you'd expect the combined fleet to look approximately like a moving average of this.

(This image should be a picture of the combined new car fleet)

Two charts from the EPA. The top chart shows relative change since 1975 of combined fleet fuel economy, horsepower, and weight, with the text conclusion from the article reading: "In the two decades prior to 2004, technology innovation and market trends generally resulted in increased vehicle power and weight (due to increasing vehicle size and content) while average new vehicle fuel economy steadily decreased and CO2 emissions correspondingly increased. Since model year 2004, the combination of technology innovation and market trends have resulted in average new vehicle fuel economy increasing 32%, horsepower increasing 20%, and weight increasing 4%." Specifically, the change from sedans to SUVs appears to have tanked the combined fuel economy, leading to a low in 2005. Since then it's risen RAPIDLY. Weight also increased from a low in 1980 linearly until 2003-ish, and is mostly flat since until it started spking up recently The lower graph shows fleet footprint (area from above) over time, but the graph starts in 2007ish, and ends at 7% up, generally a pretty linear increase
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Douglas Kilpatrick

@TechConnectify @dualityk@sdf.org @scott Similar to you, I struggle to find pedestrian collision rates that aren't the fatality rates. IIHS has pedestrian fatality rates: iihs.org/topics/fatality-stati

low in 2009, and then increasing since. That doesn't seem to match up cleanly with a hypothetical smoothed out weight or footprint from the fleet from above.

Edit: actually? Kinda might match up with the footprint data..
Edit2: What I can find about fatality rate suggests it's around 7.2%ish constantish

A graph of deaths over time, with two series. The top blue series is "other deaths", which in context would be people in cars. The black line at the bottom would be pedestrian deaths. Pedestrian deaths are much less variable, and have a general curve down from 1980 to 2009, and a still-pretty-gentle-but-less-so curve back up from 2009 to 2021)
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Douglas Kilpatrick

@TechConnectify @scott In the same timeframe, mobile phone penetration appears to have gone from 30% to 90%?

insiderintelligence.com/conten

I admit, I don't see an obvious match in curve shape here. Looks more like footprint to me than cellphone adoption.

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Douglas Kilpatrick

@TechConnectify @scott But all these correlations appear to be insufficiently clean for me to trust, and I'd want someone who actually did this for a living to chime in.

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Douglas Kilpatrick

@TechConnectify @scott (The argument against footprint: while the source doesn't have the data, we can be pretty confident that footprint increased during the switch from sedans to SUVs, and yet pedestrian deaths were declining in that time frame.)

Technology Connections

@kilpatds @scott yeah, to be honest I'm far more concerned about hood profile than footprint - and that has absofuckinglutely gotten much worse

Jul 17, 2023, 09:00 PM·Public·Tusky
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